Listened to @1basemoney discuss @Giovann35084111 “Subharmonics” Model/Theory. Crazy how it follows very closely what is happening (I think). Here are my thoughts on it (why it is tracking / not tracking at different times). NOTE: I added the arrows/annotations.
You can read this as a Twitter/X thread here: https://x.com/deanoroll5/status/2069237744824398296?s=20
Prior Cycle / Blowoff Top
The prior cycle had a true blowoff top (twice). The “early institutions” arrived (led by $MSTR). Then others, including the Coinbase IPO.
Then the $GBTC premium flipped to a discount and “crypto” started blowing up.
FTX+ / Chokepoint
Then we had the China mining ban. Followed by another “double top” (which in hindsight might have been related to the following).
The crypto industry started to blow up (Luna, terraUSD, Celsius bankrupty). Then FTX (the second largest crypto exchange went under).
$GBTC discount hit 48% and Operation Chokepoint went full tilt.
Election
Trump won the election and risk assets soared. Bitcoin rocketed higher because people thought the regime change from the Operation Chokepoint cohort to the more crypto friendly cohort.
This combined with the upcoming halving and the next bull market was starting.
“Subharmonics” Model Checkpoint #1
We’ve followed Giovanni’s Eigenmode i.e. “Subharmonics” model/theory throughout these events 1) Prior Cycle / Blowoff Top, 2) FTX+ / Chokepoint, 3) Election.
You can see the wavy dotted line tracking all these events almost perfectly.
Weird!
ETFs Go Live
The spot Bitcoin ETFs start trading in early January 2024.
As money poured into the most successful ETF launches ever the price rose rapidly.
In my opinion, this is the biggest thing to ever happen in Bitcoin. I believe these broke the 4 year/halving cycle.
IMPORTANT: At this point, we diverged from the “Subharmonics” model to the upside.
$100k
The EFT launch caused the price to rise rapidly and drastically (and ahead of the “cycle” expectations).
Then the $58k gang took over until the price finally blew through $100k at the end of the year.
Everyone expected the price to keep going (like normally happens) for the “cycles” blow off top.
No Blowoff Top?!?
We never got a blow off top (and we diverged here GREATLY from the “Subharmonics” model).
The ETFs providing the first opportunity for Bitcoin OGs to have ample ‘exit liquidity’ and the huge psychological $100k milestone created the Bitcoin IPO moment and killed the “cycles” blow off top.
We got a muted top at $124k.
Shallow Bear?
We are now in a Bitcoin bear market. It is currently a fairly shallow bear market (50%-ish drawdown from the ATH).
The debate now is 1) will we only get a shallow bear (due to not having a blow off top prior) or 2) will we get a true Bitcoin bear (70-80% down).
The “subharmonic model” calls for a shallow bear. I also think we get that. Bitcoin is currently boring everyone to sleep (while AI/IPOs suck headlines).
“Subharmonics” Model Checkpoint #2
Giovanni’s Eigenmode i.e. “Subharmonics” model/theory tracked relatively close during these events: 1) Election, 2) ETFs, 3) $100k, 4) No Blowoff Top?!?, and 5) Shallow Bear? (at least so far).
I believe the introduction of the ETFs messed up this ‘cycle’ (causing it to diverge from the “Subharmonics” model.
I also think we get that. Bitcoin is currently boring everyone to sleep (while AI/IPOs suck headlines).
FUTURE: Grind Higher ‘27/’28?
Giovanni’s “Subharmonics” Model even called this most recent reversal from May 2026/$80k down to the current $60k levels. Bold call when everyone else was saying “we’re back”.
Looking into the future the “Subharmonics” model shows us exiting this bear and grinding back to the Power Law average ($150k) into 2027. Then it’ll just grind sideways/higher up to $200k by 2028.
FUTURE: Blowoff Top ’29?
Once it hits $200k his “Subharmonics” Model shows this being a launch pad (maybe $200k is another big psychological number that kicks off the next parabolic blow off top. By the end of the blow off top in 2029 he projects we hit $500k-$600k.
“Subharmonics” Model Checkpoint #3 (FUTURE)
I think the next cycle will be a return to typical boom/busts (as he suggests). It makes complete sense. Bitcoin doing Bitcoin things.
I think the spot ETF introduction completely messed up the last “cycle”. Now everyone believes Bitcoin is broken/dead. So what will it do? Prove it isn’t.
Seems completely plausible. We’ll see if he gets it right!
The livestream where he discussed this was here: https://www.youtube.com/live/BaMm_Hqb0IU?si=VU8gJ72uJE0PXiyG
Back in September 2023, I wrote about the big events that I believed were driving Bitcoin’s price moves. This was pre-ETF approval (which I believe is the biggest driver we’ve ever seen so far).
HODL!
DeanoRolls (@deanoroll5) 